Several illusions behind the rise of the hottest c

Several illusions behind the rise in coal prices

when the supply and demand of thermal coal are unbalanced, the supply and demand fundamentals determine the price trend; When supply and demand are in a relatively balanced state, the price trend depends on the momentum building ability of both buyers and sellers. Once there is a disturbance, others will often be infected by emotions and choose to follow the trend without considering the fundamentals. It is easy to be deceived by some false appearances, making people seriously misjudge the real market. Recently, stimulated by the policy of importing coal, the price index and futures price of thermal coal have risen sharply. Under the condition that the relationship between supply and demand has not changed much, some illusions give people the illusion that the price will continue to rise. At this time, we need to be alert to the illusion behind the soaring price of thermal coal, remove the clouds and find the truth

illusion 1: the transaction price and price index of thermal coal in northern ports soared

recently, I heard that the transaction price of thermal coal in northern ports is getting higher and higher, and the transaction price has risen from more than 560 yuan/ton to as high as 610 yuan/ton. The actual situation is that although a small part of high-quality coal is indeed traded at a high price as cement coal, few power plants participate in the transaction, and a few high price transactions are not representative

those who are familiar with index compilation should know that many indexes adopt the quotation mode of traders rather than the real transaction price mode. It is convenient and fast to collect data in the quotation mode of traders, but the biggest drawback is the inevitable emotional color. Many daily and weekly indexes adopt the quotation method of traders, which is easy to be affected by traders' emotions, and the price index is easy to be manipulated and hyped, which deviates greatly from the actual situation and disturbs the normal order of the market

the receipt data using the real transaction mode is more complex, but it can more objectively reflect the real state of the market. The Ceci index of China's coastal power coal price adopts the real transaction quotation mode of power plants, which can reflect the market transaction price more objectively than the quotation mode of traders

few power plants have participated in the purchase of spot goods from northern ports at high prices, which can be confirmed by the spot transaction price of China's coastal power coal price Ceci index of 577 yuan/ton in this period

illusion 2: the price of thermal coal futures soared, indicating that it is expected to rise

futures can detect the spot price in advance. However, this futures delivery is obviously affected by the capital forces of the new national standard and the long and short sides, which are now being fulfilled. Instead of price discovery, it has disturbed the normal order of the market and led to a sharp shock in the thermal coal market

on the one hand, due to the heavy losses of large coal enterprises participating in the 1801 contract, there are not many entities with real resources under the 1805 contract. On the other hand, as some power plants under the 1801 contract tasted the sweetness, the 1805 contract power plants began to participate in futures trading widely. Close to delivery, many short sellers have no resources, coupled with long positions, traders who are reluctant to sell goods under the stimulation of the imported coal policy and other reasons, short sellers found it difficult to deliver and began to close positions and escape, resulting in the sharp rise in the 1805 contract price, indirectly driving the spot coal price expectation. In addition, 1807 contracts and 1809 contracts also rose with the trend driven by the bulls of some futures companies, which incorrectly guided the market and disrupted the normal rhythm of the market

illusion 3: the inventory of ports and power plants has decreased significantly, and the power plants are short of coal

in fact, the inventory of ports and power plants is still very high. Now the coal mines have also accumulated a certain amount of inventory, and the inventory of the whole society is at a high level. According to cctd data, by the end of March, the coal inventory of the whole society was 240 million tons, an increase of 9.1% year-on-year

1. According to the inventory data of six major coastal points in the past three years, the coal storage of coastal power plants is at the highest level in the past three years. As of April 27, the inventory of the six major coastal power plants increased by 2.36 million tons year-on-year

2 The northern port inventory is not declining, but actually rising

the port inventory is actually still at a high level. Although the recent overhaul of the Datong Qinhuangdao line and the inventory of Qinhuangdao port have fallen, the Mongolian Hebei line has opened a large train directly to Caofeidian port. It is understood that on April 23, the first 10000 ton train of the Tanghu line of the Mongolian Hebei railway was sent from the zhaohao station in Bayin mengke, Ordos City to the port of Caofeidian, Huaneng, and was unloaded smoothly, marking that the 10000 ton train of the Mongolian Hebei railway will realize normal operation

as of April 27, the inventory of northern ports was 19.37 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2 million tons. In addition, there are many new coal storage sites, such as Huaneng Caofeidian port, which is not included in the inventory statistics of northern ports. The port inventory is actually higher than the statistics, and Caofeidian port alone is nearly 3million tons more than the statistics

3. The power plant is not short of coal

taking Huaneng as an example, according to the data of the six major coastal power stations, as of April 27, the inventory of Huaneng coastal power plant at this time was 3.82 million tons, the inventory of Huaneng Caofeidian port was 1.22 million tons, and the daily consumption was 213000 tons. If you count the 1.5 million tons on the way of the Mongolian Hebei line, the available days reached an amazing 31 days! See, the power plant is not short of coal

illusion 4: this year's coal import restriction policy is very strict

in fact, this year's coal import policy is relatively loose than expected. In mid April this year, it was reported that Xiamen Customs District, a first-class port, began to restrict the import of coal, giving the impression that this year's coal import policy control will be very strict. However, in fact, this year's coal import restriction policy has the greatest impact on traders, and end users such as power plants can still continue to import "one ship, one discussion", and there is no tightening of coal import restriction policy in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Shandong, Liaoning and other places. Although the import restriction policy was restarted, it is believed that the state will ensure the most basic safety of coal use in coastal power plants after experiencing a serious imbalance between supply and demand before the Spring Festival

putting aside these illusions, we can see that in fact, port and power plant inventories are still high, power plants are not short of coal, and the import coal restriction policy is relatively loose than expected. In the case of little change in the supply and demand fundamentals of thermal coal, the price rise of thermal coal supported by these illusions is insufficient

how to go in the future

first, it depends on the demand. From a macro perspective, industrial production generally improved in April, and the operating rates of automobile, steel, cement, chemical industry and other industries rebounded. However, the terminal demand is still weak. Although the growth rate of automobile sales has rebounded slightly, the real estate sales are still sluggish and have not improved, which means that industrial production is unlikely to continue. Electricity demand may decline in the later period. From the perspective of thermal coal demand, may and June are the off-season of coal demand, and the demand in May and June will not be stronger than that in April. Without much change on the supply side, coal prices did not have the momentum to rise in May and June

second, hydropower output will increase in May. In recent two to three weeks, the water inflow from the upper reaches of the Three Gorges has weakened year-on-year, but the water level in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges is rising year-on-year, which shows that the Three Gorges is deliberately storing water. It is understood that not long ago, the Yangtze River flood control and drought relief headquarters said that this year, the upper reaches of the Yangtze River rainfall is normal; There is less rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and some areas in the middle reaches may suffer from summer drought. In this regard, the Yangtze River flood control headquarters proposed that for the occurrence and development of periodic high temperature and drought, water storage and water source regulation should be done in a timely manner. From this point of view, in order to prevent the dry weather in the lower reaches, the Yangtze River intends to store water in April. In May, with the increase of rainwater in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the increase of hydropower output, the demand for thermal coal will decline

third, after May Day, the overhaul of Daqin line was completed, and the transportation capacity increased. After the May Day holiday, the completion of the overhaul of Daqin line will bring tons of increment to the northern port every day, which can effectively supplement the port inventory. It is expected that the northern port has broken through the difficulty of matching the strength and toughness of 7x55 aluminum alloy pre stretched thick plates, and the port inventory will usher in a new wave of inventory peak. In addition, the coal transportation capacity will be increased and guaranteed by the adjustment of railway operation diagram and transportation capacity of some routes

fourth, according to the price index in April, the annual long-term association and outsourcing long-term association of the four major mines will decline significantly in May. Based on the current inventory and daily consumption level of coastal power plants, the power plants will still mainly purchase long-term cooperative coal in May, and the purchase volume of spot coal is still limited, and the rebound of spot price lacks market support

fifth, the country is vigorously promoting the release of advanced production capacity, and the supply will be guaranteed. The National Energy Administration released the energy production and operation in the first quarter of 2018, which revealed that 1156 coal mines (including 83 synchronous reconstruction and reconstruction projects of production coal mines) were built, with a production capacity of 1.02 billion tons. Among the coal mines under construction, 230 have entered the joint test run, with a production capacity of 360million tons. With the subsequent release of advanced production capacity, coal production is expected to continue to grow, and the supply will be guaranteed