The hottest policies frequently appear to solve th

2022-08-21
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Policies frequently appear to solve the dilemma of the "building" prophet of the cold and warm steel market

policies frequently appear to solve the dilemma of the "building" prophet of the cold and warm steel market

China Construction machinery information

today's frost, the last solar term of autumn, means that the cold winter is coming. What kind of winter will it be for the property market that continues to cool

the property market cooled significantly in the first three quarters

the real estate data of the first three quarters recently released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that the cumulative growth rate of national real estate development investment fell for the ninth consecutive month. In addition, indicators such as new housing starts and sales also weakened across the board. Although it is the traditional golden September peak season, the seasonally favorable season has not brought a rebound to sales, said Zhou Changyi, director of the raw material industry department of the Ministry of industry and information technology

the growth rate of real estate investment has hit a new low since August 2009. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2014, the national real estate development investment was 6875.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year nominal increase of 12.5% (the actual increase after deducting price factors was 11.7%), and the growth rate fell by 0.7 percentage points compared with the month (see Figure 1). Among them, the residential investment was 4672.5 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3%, and the growth rate fell by 1.1 percentage points. The proportion of residential investment in real estate development investment is 68.0%. The financing environment of real estate enterprises has not been improved, and the capital pressure is still large, resulting in a continuous decline in investment willingness

it is understood that the growth rate of capital sources of real estate enterprises has further declined. In June, the funds paid in by real estate development enterprises were 8986.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points lower than that of the month. Among them, the decline was mainly caused by the 2% decline in bank loans, and enterprises are still facing greater capital and credit pressure

in addition, 1 finally, this customer went to other places to see - in September, the land purchase of real estate development enterprises in order to produce a high-definition edge area of 240.14 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points larger than that in September; The land transaction price was 678.1 billion yuan, an increase of 11.5%, and the growth rate fell by 1.3 percentage points. This will have a great impact on real estate development investment next year

the performance of Jinjiu traditional modified peek is stronger, and the sales did not rebound in the peak season. In June, the sales area of commercial housing was 77.132 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the month. The sales volume of commercial housing was 4922.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%, which was the same as that in January. At the same time, the decline in house prices continues. According to the data of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the average price of (New) housing in 100 cities across the country fell by 0.92% month on month in September, which was the fifth consecutive month of decline, with a decline of 0.33 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. At the end of September, the new housing loan policy issued by the central bank had a certain boost to the improvement demand, but there was a lag effect on investment

although the new construction area of houses still showed a negative growth, the decline continued to narrow. In January, the new construction area of housing was 1314.11 million square meters, down 9.3%. The decline narrowed by 1.2 percentage points month on month, decreased by 0.2% year-on-year in a single month, and increased by 5.4% month on month, showing a stabilizing trend. As sales may improve in the future, the new trade union will resume positive growth next year

sales are difficult to improve, and inventory continues to increase, hitting a new high in recent five years. At the end of September, the area of commercial housing for sale was 571.48 million square meters, an increase of 9.88 million square meters over the end of August. Among them, the area for sale of residential buildings increased by 6.29 million square meters, the area for sale of office buildings increased by 460000 square meters, and the area for sale of commercial business houses increased by 2.06 million square meters

frequent policies to solve the dilemma of the property market

since this year, the property market has continued to cool down. Against this background, the "deregulation" mode of property market purchase restrictions has been launched across the country. Among the 46 cities, only Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Sanya are still implementing the purchase restrictions. Various regions have successively loosened the purchase restrictions, which did not produce obvious results

on September 30, the central bank issued a new housing loan policy, involving preferential policies such as "loan clearance without housing recognition" and "minimum 70% interest rate". Subsequently, the three departments issued a document requiring all regions to relax the conditions for provident fund loans, which is conducive to stimulating market demand

the good property market drives the steel market to recover. Don't be blindly optimistic in the future.

since this year, the downturn in the property market has dragged down the economy and the steel market. The real estate industry is the main downward consumer industry in the steel market, and its weakness will inevitably lead to the decline of steel consumption capacity. Now, driven by the policy, the real estate market has shown a positive side. Driven by the policy, the property market sales picked up, boosting the confidence of the steel market. Therefore, after the sharp decline in August and September, the steel market stopped falling and turned red. As of October 22, China's steel composite index was at 111.5 points, up 0.65% from the previous month

if the property market continues to warm up, it is bound to affect the demand of the steel industry and its downstream construction machinery, home appliances, etc. However, the warming degree of the property market remains to be seen. We can also see from the data released by the Bureau of statistics that the real estate market is still facing a situation of oversupply, real estate enterprises are facing great pressure of de stocking, and funds are still tight. The growth rate of real estate development investment may still be low, which will affect the release of steel related demand. In addition, as the off-season of the steel market is approaching, the demand in the later stage cannot be blindly optimistic

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