The hottest monetary policy oriented PVC is bullis

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Monetary policy oriented PVC is bullish after the rest

I. review of PVC market for half a year (pvc1003 contract)

the figure shows the trend of PVC futures price. (source: Southwest futures)

since the listing of PVC futures, the market trend of half a year can be summarized into three stages. The first stage is from the end of June to the end of July. PVC began to fluctuate significantly. 1. The hull friction resistance coating rose, hitting a new high of 8125 this year in mid August; In the second stage, PVC prices began to fall and hit a low of 6500 at the end of September; The third stage of the market appeared after the National Day holiday, and PVC ushered in a rising market. The high point of this market reached 7790 points

second, the main influencing factors

(1) under the extremely loose monetary environment, it was only 13 trading days from the start to the end of the first stage of price rise. At that time, the market was also in the extremely loose monetary environment, and China's new loans in the first half of the year amounted to 73000 million yuan. From the situation of new loans in the first half of the year, the new greening in the first quarter: the growth rate of new loans was relatively large, and the new loans fell in the first two months of the second quarter, but the growth rate reached 1.5 trillion in June, with a month on month growth of 129.48% and a year-on-year growth of 330%. Even in the case of extremely loose market liquidity, PVC also ushered in the first wave of gains, with an increase of 15%

the chart shows the trend of new loans. (image source: Southwest futures)

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